The Oscars are this coming Sunday, and half the fun of the Oscars is trying to predict the outcome.  I’m going to go bold as possible with my predictions, so you won’t see me “predict” Daniel Day-Lewis winning for Lincoln.  So here are my completely gut feelings for this year’s competition.

#5: Skyfall wins Three Oscars


Nominated in five categories, I believe it has a pretty good chance at winning the majority of those categories.  It’s nominated in both music categories, and I believe it has Best Original Song (Adele “Skyfall”) all but wrapped up.  Original Score is also a possibility, but my bet is that John Williams wins for Lincoln because… well, it’s John Williams.  I rarely bet against Roger Deakins, so I would weigh that Skyfall’s next best bet for a win is in the Best Cinematography category.  They movie is gorgeous and should win this category as far as I’m concerned.  The final two categories it is nominated in are the Sound categories: Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing.  I never understand when these categories get split between movies, so I’d predict that it either wins both or neither.  I’ll say it wins both as it is the closest thing to an action movie in the category and sound plays a big part in the making of the film.

#4: Jennifer Lawrence Wins Best Actress


Maybe not a “bold” prediction, but an increasingly unpopular choice to win Best Actress is Jennifer Lawrence for her role in Silver Linings Playbook.  I don’t understand exactly how the front-runners ebb and flow as the competition gets closer, but Emmanuelle Riva has started to pick up steam down the stretch for her role in Amour.  Admittedly, I haven’t seen Amour, but I thought Jennifer Lawrence was amazing in Silver Linings Playbook, and coming off both a Golden Globe and a SAG Award, she’s my choice.

#3: Django: Unchained Gets Shut Out


This is just a gut feeling, but to me it doesn’t seem like the Academy ever looks to do Quentin Tarantino any favors.  How he didn’t win Best Original Screenplay for Inglourious Basterds is beyond me.  I think history will repeat itself in the category and Tarantino is going to lose out to another Kathryn Bigelow-directed film.  This time, Mark Boal’s script for Zero Dark Thirty wins out.

#2: Disney Wins Both Animated Categories


I don’t think this year is the year of the underdog when it comes to animation.  Wreck-It Ralph and Paperman are arguably the two best animated films of the year.  It’s only a question of which one is the best.  Brave is no doubt Wreck-It Ralph’s biggest competition; anything from Pixar automatically is in the running.  But while Brave is a truly exquisite-looking film, it lacks in plot.  I can only guess at the Best Animated Short Film category, as I’ve only seen Paperman, but it’s a beautiful and heartwarming film and it’s storytelling at its best.

#1: Silver Linings Playbook wins Best Picture


I’m going to cite precedent on this one along with go with my gut.  I almost said Argo would win, but that would mean that not only would the Best Picture and Best Director winners not come from the same movie for the first time since 2006 (Best Pic: Crash, Best Director: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain), it would be the first time that the director of the Best Picture winner wasn’t even nominated in… forever?